Important Reminder

The events and opinions in this blog are that of "Stockspeare" and are the public diary of a "Mad Scientist " trader who is solely expressing what he is thinking and using his personal money to place trades on his beliefs. He - by no way advocates anybody follow what he says or does. It is used only as a public blog to document a Trader's journey to achieving financial freedom or failure. This is a real life experiment.

I see four "Black Swan Events" that happend in last 4 days!

Did you see them? The 4th happened today We have gone Red Alert. Our greed inspires us to go bonkers. Bought Gold and Shorts en masse today. Hard thing to do considering it is very difficult to go against The Machine. At least we throw real money on our convictions no matter how crazy it may seem at times. It is our belief that unless you are risking financial pain by vocalizing your financial opinions, you should.....we digress;). We see black swans and we are betting heavy on the market having at least a normal %10 correction. No biggie. The odds are 85% that it happens very soon.

- Stockspeare "The Mad Scientist"

Capitalism injected into China...Russian collapse redux

Here's the thing...Capitalism has been injected into the Chinese Communist system with the success of the Alibaba IPO.  Think of Long Term Capital in Russia, Think of the book "Animal Farm". China is headed for a rude awakening. Wall Street investors in China are heading for a rude awakening. Capitalism in Communist countries lead to one outcome. Pandora's Box has been opened. Expect significant global market contractions. It's amazing how easy money and greed can collapse a socialist system. Brilliant. The global markets are going to get hit hard as China tries to reign in un-controlled domestic demands for freedom and their citizen's demand for a share of the wealth. Jack Ma may be responsible for the end of communism in China (not without a fight).Expect global volatility to hit the roof soon. This is not a drill.

Has the Bell finally rung?

1. Alibaba IPO -  The largest spectacle of total hype, profit, and greed in U.S. history. It was done by a Communist company in a Capitalist Country!

2. Apple's ugly, expensive, and cheap new IPhone ( in our opinion).

3. Bill Gross leaving PIMCO and the selling off of the High Yield Market.

4. The Goldman Sachs tapes.

5. The rising dollar

6. Global unrest.

7. S&P500 at 18X's trailing earnings.

8. There is way too much money locked in paper profits. Greed if off the charts. How much more do people expect to make in less than 3years?!

9. What can possibly make the market go higher at this point? Don't say earnings.


Are we just grumpy Bears? Maybe- over-all we have lost a fair amount of money betting against this persistent bull market the last 4 months.

We shorted again on the day of the Alibaba IPO. If now isn't the perfect excuse for a 10% correction, then I don't know how this market can be stopped. It's not healthy for the market to go this long without a pause. It's not natural to Wall Street not to have volatility. Wall Street and banks are forced to take excessive risks buying assets they know are way over priced just to get a return. You need velocity and churning to have natural and healthy markets.