Added more to our short on U.S. Banks

Let's see if it sticks. We don't like the results of the stress test. We think the run is over. Tight stops of course.

Gold Trade closed

Our holdings were up another 5% this morning. We couldn't resist a 15% gain in two days on our gold play! We are out of gold for now.

Wow! What an exciting day!

There was total carnage all morning with hedge funds getting crushed  in momentum stocks, financials, and short bond positions. The gold traders intentionally broke the 200-day moving average and triggered stop-losses across the gold pits. All looked lost. In the last hour of trading, our gold position started going up even though gold futures were still going down. It was really strange. We held on to our positions and even added short U.S. banks to our portfolio. We had to reboot our computers several times because we could not believe our leveraged gold index position started soaring!

We ended the day with our gold holdings up 10%!

Touché gold bugs, Touché;)

Added another position....

We began a short position in U.S: Banks today. We think their run since the bottom of 2008 might be over. If the yield curve flattens out even more, their profits will begin to erode. Stocks are going down, they are afraid to buy bonds because of tapering, they have to keep more reserves due to the stress test, and they refuse to buy gold- yet.

So- we are long gold and short banks.

Crazy market. Hopefully when the Hedge-Fund traders are done licking their wounds on their momentum stock plays the last couple days, they will join our trade. That would be great. We can all make money;)

Not sure what they are looking for...

Let's see.....
They say gold goes up when rates are going down, when there is inflation, when the dollar weakens, and when there is financial system weakness, as a safe-haven from global geo-political risk.

All of this is happening right now and they STILL don't like gold. I don't know what to tell you. The fix is in?

If they don't start buying by the end of the day, and I mean in a significant way, then traders must be either brain dead or just plain worn out;)

Perfect Day!

Everything got killed again today. We are glad we side-stepped the last few days. These are the facts:

Since Yellen:

1. Rates are going down - not up.
2. The dollar is weakening slightly.
3. Gold finally hit the $1300 level- A level that the gold bugs have to support or their whole gig is up and they can kiss off any more business this year.
4. We called the huge correction in momentum stocks 3 days ago. We tried desperately to get shares to short and there were none available. Too bad, we would have made good money in a hurry.
5. All the technical indicators are in perfect sync.
6. Everybody lost  a lot of money except -bond buyers and gold shorts.

Why a perfect day?

We knew 3 days ago that gold would hit 1300, there would be massive buying in bonds, and that the top momentum stocks would get crushed. We did not place any trades despite this prediction because we wanted to catch the final battle in the gold trade We did!

We loaded the boat to 75% on leveraged gold index bull plays at the close because the short gold traders have made a killing the last 9 days. They would be absolutely crazy not to take profits at this level. Most made 50% or more during this period. That's right- only nine days!

There should be a very high probability (80%) of at least a strong technical bounce here. We were thinking about joining in on the gold bashers at the open and making some quick cash ; however, with those odds, we decided against jumping on The Gold Bug killers team ( the shorts) and bet " The Ranch " on the Gold Bugs team (the longs). Let's see if these cockroaches fight back tomorrow. If they do not, we will dump them at a very small loss.

Gold update

Massive profit taking in stocks and gold today. The markets got hit hard. Our stop-loss was triggered in our gold mining stock. Our stock was down 7% today and it triggered a sale of 75% of our holdings in gold. We really didn't want to sell it; however, gold can move very fast and it is extremely important to have risk controls. We will look to play index gold ETF's for a quick bounce. Maybe as early as tomorrow at the open. We will be moving back to trading stocks immediately because commodities are too tricky. We will stick with the easy money.

We got it wrong in the shot-term and the gold traders took our money. Running with The Gold Bugs is a dangerous proposition unless you on the inside. Touché Gold Bugs, Touché!

And "That's the Word on The Street"

Netflix Trade Update

We covered our short on NFLX today for a nice 80-point move at $386.

Goldman, C'mon man!

We were up over 6% profit on our gold mining company this morning when Goldman started pounding the table to sell gold and some cheesy twitter guy said to take profits in my company. Well...I was busy and I saw our shares were down by 4% by the close. We wanted to buy more along with Goldman...it was a curious thing because gold was up. A huge block went through after the close and sure enough we were back up 6% in the dark pools of after hours trading. Someone really wants our shares. I don't blame them! We will buy more on the breakout.

I found out why the cheesy twitter guy said take profits in my company....he was short. He meant cover your short!  In other words- Buy! Btw- he has 1000's of followers. Actually, he made a good call because he started shorting it higher for a quick profit in 4 days. I had to really dig deep to find out that out.

The Word on The Street is: "Sell your gold" which really means "Buy back all the gold you shorted" The massive profits you made the last 12 months on the short trade is over. If you don't want to cover, we will let you buy ours at $1600/oz. in 6 months (if you're lucky).

"If you're short gold, better fold" ;)

Gold did fantastic today!

The strength was incredible in our opinion. We read that a lot of gold mining capacity was wiped out in 2013. Asia and India are crazy about gold. Germany wants to bring their gold home. I wouldn't mess with Merkel, she knows her stuff. Why does everybody want gold and the media is trying to get you to sell it. Thanks for the tip- now go buy the candy crush IPO. I'll follow the Central Banks money. A lot more investors are using it as a store of value given the current global social-economic environment. Make no mistake- there is global financial risk with the end of tapering. We (The U.S ) have no choice but to create large amounts of liquidity in the treasury markets. That means rates have to go lower to allow global inventory to clear out first ( maybe even let the dollar fall a little so it can strengthen later), and that means gold is going a lot higher....next immediate stop $1400. It should get there pretty quick.

Word on The Street is "If you are still shorting gold, you better fold".- Stockspeare 3/20/2014

After all the carnage today....

We came out of this OK. We lost most the profit we made 3 days ago; however, that was house money. We survived Yellen and The Fed's debacle. Bonds went down, stocks went down, gold went down, and their credibility went down. What are they doing?! We are now perfectly positioned in gold. Let's hope there is no more blood - It's OUR money now.

Actually, the bullish technical charts are still intact. The bullish chart for bonds and gold are still intact. There are no confirmed breakdowns in bonds or gold. We are close though. What's a trader to do? Buy stocks? No. Growth may slow. Buy Bonds? No. Not according to the media. The bond bull market is dead. Buy gold? No. Rates are going up.

The markets are totally confused. We aren't confused, we just may be wrong;)

Rates can still go lower- I can't believe The Fed would just crush all the foreign governments holdings in bonds without a chance to clear some of their inventory. Why would they crush their own inventory? Rates are going lower in the Short-term

Gold is still a good bet here if rates are going down,

If it doesn't play out this way, maybe it's better to sit on the side lines for a bit.

Hmmmm..what to do

There is no doubt people have been dumping gold the last 3 days. It is times like these that test a traders metal (no pun intended). We don't like to fight the tape; however, we don't want to flip-flop our belief solely because of the tape action today. Yes, we want to abandon the trade and stop the fear of monetary loss. That is the easy thing to do. We decided to take a stand and trust our gut....

We bought more. Either gold is going to do it here or not. It's only money. It would be absolutely devastating to bail out because of fear, only to have it run. There is nothing worse than not believing in yourself even if it cost you money. Gold is going to run or we are going to take a break because we don't know what the heck is going on!

Why we like gold

1. Because the price is going up.- no need to debate why or what will happen. We like strong trends and right now, gold is one of the best performers of the year..
2. Speculators love it. We rarely trade it and we noticed a fanatical following. We were trying to find reasons to dump it and any negative article was viciously attacked by the gold bugs.
3. The charts look great. In commodities, sometimes that is all that matters.
4. We really can't find any place more attractive to put our money.
5. Demand seems to remain strong in China and India and it was oversold last year.
6. Traders are running out of stocks to play in the stock market and the gold market offers a great opportunity if it really starts to run.

What we don't like-

1. Gold traders are fickle and there are some claims of price manipulation.
2. Is this a dead-cat bounce?
3. We are unsure which way interest rates are going.

Not much more to think about here - our stops are in place and if it doesn't run we will just sit in cash for awhile. We have no emotional tie to the trade.

Gold trade update

We were looking for a way to leverage our belief that gold is going back to at least $1600/oz. and a chance at $2200/oz. We found one. We decided to swap our 33% stake in NUGT and purchase a significant stake in a small gold mining company. We found one that seems very under-valued and mines both gold and silver. We noticed that one of the top Hedge-Fund managers has taken a stake and gold analyst are taking notice. It could be a 5-bagger if gold hits 1600 or a 10-bagger if gold hits 2000. Seriously.

Gold trade update

We couldn't afford to have our entire account in this trade for too long and did not want to hold it over the weekend. We sold 2/3 of our position before the opening for a 20% gain in 3 days! We will continue to monitor the trade.

Why Gold?

It's not that we are bearish on the stock market, it's just that Gold is breaking out and we think it is too under-owned, interest rates are going lower because of the double-top in the 10-year, negative global headlines, and Gold traders are nuts- when they start buying, prices can surge to record highs in a hurry. You would not want to short when the Gold Bulls run. We will ride with them for awhile. We know Goldman Sachs is negative on it; however, they should have bought enough of it by now to change their view;)

Switched to 100% Gold

Trade Updates

We sold our volatility trade a little early on Tuesday at a very slight gain because we wanted to buy more Gold. We did. We are holding our lithium trade. Unfortunately, it cannot be margined. We are now fully invested in  80% Gold and 20% Lithium and are using the margin to go long certain stocks if they hit our technical bounce levels for some quick profits and the Bull Market continues. Can we be both bullish and bearish? Yes and it is a profitable strategy so far;)

Wall Street's Current Playbook

1.The market looks great technically in the Short-term.
2.The stock market is at frothy levels with lots of un-claimed profit in it.
3 Volatility is increasing
4 Gold and Gold miner's probability of being under-owned and ready for a run to $2000 is increasing every day, thus it's out-performance so far in 2014. The early money is starting to jump on.
5.The quick rise of stocks and easy money in tech stocks is very intoxicating.
6. It is a Trader's Market and they have hair-trigger sell and buy programs. Do you?
7. There is a good chance that a lot of quick money cam be made here - catching the accelerated velocity of an aging Bull Market.

What are we doing?

Loading up on gold and gold miner's.
Holding and adding  on dips to our Lithium Producers positions.
Adding to our volatility positions.
Sharpening our hair-trigger trading scenarios and techniques.
Getting ready to cut our bearish position and run with the bulls or reap huge rewards betting on simple profit-taking and over-reaction.

We like betting on profit-taking and over-reaction;)

....and that is the current Wall Street Playbook. Did you get your copy? What are you? Last man on the deal list?! Just ask Gordon Gecko.

And THAT is " The Word on the Street" my friends - Stockspeare

"Two roads diverge in a yellow wood, and I-
I took the one less traveled,
And it has made all the difference."

- Robert Frost



-

We began the accumulation of volatility today

We believe 14 may be the new VIX bottom for 2014. In 2013 it was 12.

QIHU target hit: $120

Short-term selling point.

Current Holdings

100% invested:

1/2 Gold
1/2 Lithium Producers

At least until we get ready for "The Big Short" or find something better;)

Trade Updates

Our shorts were up huge across the board yesterday. We decided to hold for some follow-through this morning. It didn't happen and we had to cover our shorts like everyone else. Our gains evaporated instantly and we closed them out flat. It is definitely a " Trader's Market". We love it! The run to S&P 2000 is continuing.  QIHU is running....

We bought gold today. Even though we are in the final phases of the bull-run trade and will probably run with them on some plays, we just can't abandon the belief that things are getting a little too frothy.

Gold: There could be a huge run in gold once it settles some technical trading issues. The possibility of hitting $2000 an ounce is still there right now. We will be watching closely.

Russian Tech  Stocks: We still love to trade them. QIWI and YNDX are our favorites.

Lithium Producers: Electric cars are taking off and they need this stuff for their batteries.... We are tracking some good trading stocks. We may buy today.

Tapped Out?

Call us crazy or call us good- next week will tell. We did so well last week that we cashed out and went leveraged long on increased volatility at the close Friday ( Our gut feeling). Throwing some wild bets with tight stops that the U.S. stock market is in the final phases of a short-term market top. The valuation on some companies is ridiculous ( unless you are a 30-40 year-old mutual fund manger who wasn't around-managing money-during the mid to late 90's internet bubble). We can afford to speculate here. Quite frankly, our view of the "word on the street" is S&P500 at 2000 is maxed out. We are close. The short side will offer a fantastic opportunity in our opinion. Do a little research.. If we hold, S&P500 2200 is the target. Right now, traders own the market and investors have weak hands;)

Stockspeare