Friday, April 30, 2010

WallStreetRamblings.Com Investment Strategy

I have requests to explain our Investment Strategy by some new clients. We are not by nature "Day Traders".Our strategies are based upon Macro-Economic, Fundamental, and Technical Analysis/Market Timing principals. We begin with a "Top Down" view of markets, sectors, and economics. We like to get a picture of the current environment and cycle. We do not use Value Investing like Warren Buffet and others. We feel there are many others with much greater expertise and access to information who can more accurately define the true value of a business. The core of our strategy is to try, as best we can, to move into positions we feel the majority of money will flow (Institutional Buyers), either while they are accumulating and just before rapid buying. We try to ascertain what are the real intentions of the "smart money". Are they scaring people away so they can accumulate? Are they promoting so they can unload? Once the Macro picture is identified we employ market timing computer programs based upon probabilities of technical formations. We try to play only those formations that have been proven to have a 75% or better probability of success. We try to play those with the strongest fundamentals; however, some of our best plays have been those which do not possess strong fundamentals but have "retail" appeal. Once opportunities have been identified, we then use accumulation principals ranging from pyramiding to all out buy. Our time frame is usually days or weeks. We will trade around core positions and frequently play the same positions multiple times.We employ strict risk management principals based upon the rules of "Texas No-Limit Poker" and protecting "Your Stack" against "Bad Beats". Better to live to fight another day. We will often use the media in a contrary manner. We will go long, short, or both. We are not believers in having a big basket of positions. We prefer to watch a small basket like a hawk. The rest is a "Secret Recipe".