Friday, September 17, 2010

A Devastating Day!

Today was one of the worst day's as a trader in memory. Not in a long time has my spirit been so broken. Just to recap the last 24-hours. We bet big that RIMMs earnings were going to be good and induce a "short squeeze" earlier in the week- in fact we bet "The Ranch". We bought Oct50 calls for $1.20 on Tuesday this week. Yesterday at 3:45pm the options were at $1.70 with RIMM reporting after the close (4:00pm). We were up a very nice amount ( almost 42% in 2 days!). We decided to hold for earnings even though we were nervous but held because we figured the stock would at least gap to $50/share after earnings. About 4:25pm Thursday earnings came out and blew away Wall Street expectations. the stock gapped to $50-plus in the after-hours. We figured our options might price near $5.00/share. Well, we could not sell our options in the after-hours. If we had the stock, we would have dumped. We were stuck til Friday at the 9:30am opening. Well, we were very excited to say the least. We figured we could at least dump the options at around $3-$4 bucks a share the next day (Friday morning open). We partied like rock stars Thursday night. We could not wait for the open today. THE DEVASTATION BEGINS. The stock opens up at $48 plus and the options open up at $1.60.- lower than the close even though the stock was $2 higher! Shoot! We know somethings up and the option market makers know too. I decide that the price is too low. These options are worth at least $3 by October. We don't sell. IT GETS WORSE. The price comes down to our break-even. We don't sell. I read a lot of reports and decide that this is still going up. We DOUBLE our position to include the horses as well as the ranch @ 1.15/a contract. BIG MISTAKE. By the close our options touched a low of $0.77. The technicals indicate a total reversal. The analysts hate the stock still, and the financial media hates it too (US media). By now the inside of our trading floor is askew with thrown objects and holes in the wall. We know that we are on the brink of destruction. Why did we bet so big? Why did we get so greedy? We could have taken our 40% and been on the golf course by now! We did not. I think the contracts are worth at least $3.00 by October 16th. But is it worth it? In retrospect- No! This is where we stand right now. Destruction or Glory. In poker- It's an "All-In". I just feel RIMM contracts are worth least $5. This is one of the greatest "bluff calls"in the history of the company. We either score or we are history. I am not happy at all! Now I how Lehman Brothers felt.