The markets have been very strong. We closed out our shorts yesterday (at a break even), which was 1 day too early. Our trade worked out perfect; however, our timing was off by a couple hours. We jumped in the TVIX yesterday ahead of our program at 60 and again at 56- which was ahead of our computer target of 55 (it hit 54). The problem was that we did not wait for our computers to hit their targets. Well- needless to say, it was a couple hours too early and we were 100% committed. The market rose to our targets and we were underwater (impatience). It got near the close and we were surprised by the strength-we bailed out at a break even. Had we held or executed better, we could have claimed a nice 10% profit today (it hit 61). So- it gets worse. We think the markets are done with the fear trade, so we decide to go long financials and buy FAS (3X's). Again ,our timming was just off and we got in today at 12.05...it went straight to 11.47 and the news was horrible...JP Morgan reported and missed...double whipsaw! By this time we are braindead. We decide to hold and adapt a "damn the torpedos" mentality. We are not going to get shaken out of the tree twice in a row. FAS is going to 14 and we know it-no matter what the news is! It recovered to close at 11.97. Really a Dr. Bizzaro...against all logic. This is where we stand right now.
Analysis: Our ideas are 100% dead on- our execution is horrendous. The problem: Believing that we are "spot on" and not waiting or jumping the gun. The solution: Trust your systems.
