Thursday, January 19, 2012

The Confusion and Volatility Trade

Confused by the market? To paraphrase Jesse Livemore -" I'm not a bull or a bear, I just bet on the the right side of the market". That seems to be the mantra so far this year. Quite frankly, nobody really knows why the market continues to go up. The financial system is still extremely weak and the printing boat loads of money continues. Earnings have been disappointing as a whole so far. The financials continue to perform "funny money accounting" The volatility index just broke 20 today! There is just no fear in the market at all so far. The volume is low and most institutions have been stepping over themselves to get invested for the 2012 performance race.This is driving up the market on very low volume. What do they care? It's not their money and they do not want to miss the boat or their bonuses by being left behind. I don't buy it and still think the volatility wave is comming.

We added another bit to our TVIX trade at 21.77 today giving us a 22.88 average price. Check emails for strategy update.

Google, IBM, Intel,and Microsoft report after the bell. The easy bet says they will all be up after they report and Google should kill it. This will be our first test of the "set up". It is a no brainer to bet Google shares rocket after posting earnings. Let see if that transpires or we are still in a thin manipulated market. (our hunch is a sell-off...only the bravest would bet it)