Thursday, July 5, 2012
Called bottom in 1st week of June
Our "Close all Shorts" at Dow 12100 on first week of June worked. It hit 12961 today. Not bad. Check emails for new update.
Wednesday, June 20, 2012
As you know........
We will accept any challenge from "the best of the best" in any trade. Name your market and name your venue - we will play.
Tuesday, June 19, 2012
Any others?
We welcome all duels! Any others want to prove themselves? Big paychecks and no skills. Let's play in a public domain.
Trade Challenge!
We are willing to accept a trade challenge from the perceived "Best of Wall Street". Stay tuned for the details. An "Analysts" from a major institution has challenged our skills in a trade duel! Game on! I'll publish the details as soon as he/she does.
Trade Update and more.....
Continue to hold GOOG. The markets have rallied 900 points since our short close out. Sick! Now we are adding Groupon and Alcoa to our trading list. Sometimes a trader is right on. We are right on! Now it is getting close to a short attempt. Hold GOOG and look to add Groupon. FaceBook is going higher. Check emails for strategy update.
Saturday, June 9, 2012
Why the new trading model is easy profits!
We have discussed this before. The majority of Wall Street traders have been taught the very basics of technical analysis. This happened because a few authors that are well respected, have become the model of most current trading programs. The "Youngsters" in big positions are just doing what they have been taught. They have been taught from a few basic and popular schools of thought. The "Artists" have been displaced by a
corporate hiring program that screens for standardized skills and experiences. What is missing is an actual human interaction to screen for "artistic ability".Trading is an art. EASY PROFITS. Game Theory dictates that the more standardized the process becomes, the more predictable. Why? Because the moves become predictable. An "Artist" can anticipate where the bulk of the money-flow will be heading in the current homogenized environment. EASY PROFITS. Check emails for current updates. Our last call was outstanding....let's keep it up!
corporate hiring program that screens for standardized skills and experiences. What is missing is an actual human interaction to screen for "artistic ability".Trading is an art. EASY PROFITS. Game Theory dictates that the more standardized the process becomes, the more predictable. Why? Because the moves become predictable. An "Artist" can anticipate where the bulk of the money-flow will be heading in the current homogenized environment. EASY PROFITS. Check emails for current updates. Our last call was outstanding....let's keep it up!
Tuesday, June 5, 2012
Trade Watch: Goog position initiated....
Bought starting position in GOOG at 568 with add at 552. We really liked it at 600; however, our computers did not. Glad we followed their lead. Target is 800 plus.We think it can reach low 500- at that point it would be an "all in" with tight stop programs. GOOG will be 1000 dollars (pre-split). This is a high-probability play. In poker- you make bets at these points. We will play this hand. I am glad we saved our readers millions on the Facebook hand. Please review email report on our Google strategy. We may try a FB trade at 18.50. Stay tuned.
Close all shorts.....start trade program!
Looks like it has been playing out textbook. We are suggesting closing out the short sides. The bad news is played out- unless the dam breaks. Check emails for levels.
Saturday, May 26, 2012
Trade Watch: GOOG and FB
Google and FaceBook
There will be great trades here..........
GOOG- Split and confusion over voting/non-voting shares
FB - Correct valuation. ( Can we predict the right entry point?)
Check your emails for strategy and price targets.
There will be great trades here..........
GOOG- Split and confusion over voting/non-voting shares
FB - Correct valuation. ( Can we predict the right entry point?)
Check your emails for strategy and price targets.
A WSR Training Tool......A Key to Success.
Thank you for the feedback and the compliments. We have received numerous emails asking how our batting average is so high. I guess after a great day of working out, wonderful sunny day, and a party at the pool- we might let you in on a key to trading. First of all- God Bless Our Troops- Past and Present! This is Memorial Day Weekend. Don't EVER forget the ultimate sacrifice others have given so we can enjoy our way of life. Always remember and respect them! Always! We owe a tremendous amount to the parents and their sons and daughters who are/have been in the armed forces. Ourah!
Texas "No Limit" Hold'em. A crucial tool to learning how to invest and trade. Why? It teaches you the following:
1. Risk Management
2. Risk Management
3. Accepting and escaping losing propositions
4. Understanding market trading and betting patterns
5. Sticking/reversing during volatility for the payoff
6. Playing a game style that is most comfortable to your personality- Key
7. Understanding the bluff (media ) and the players ( analysts and institutions )
8. Trusting your instincts
9. Ability to understand luck and its place in your strategy with no emotion
0. Controlling your emotions and establishing confidence
As our readers know, Jesse Livermore was one of the greatest traders of all time. Now imagine his skills combined with the greatest poker players? Now add in current technology and the hiring trends at the largest institutions. You seeing the light?
In poker - it is crucial to learn the player's habits at your table. It is crucial to learn the habits of those that influence the market.
Have a wonderful and thoughtful Weekend!
Texas "No Limit" Hold'em. A crucial tool to learning how to invest and trade. Why? It teaches you the following:
1. Risk Management
2. Risk Management
3. Accepting and escaping losing propositions
4. Understanding market trading and betting patterns
5. Sticking/reversing during volatility for the payoff
6. Playing a game style that is most comfortable to your personality- Key
7. Understanding the bluff (media ) and the players ( analysts and institutions )
8. Trusting your instincts
9. Ability to understand luck and its place in your strategy with no emotion
0. Controlling your emotions and establishing confidence
As our readers know, Jesse Livermore was one of the greatest traders of all time. Now imagine his skills combined with the greatest poker players? Now add in current technology and the hiring trends at the largest institutions. You seeing the light?
In poker - it is crucial to learn the player's habits at your table. It is crucial to learn the habits of those that influence the market.
Have a wonderful and thoughtful Weekend!
Friday, May 18, 2012
Why we don't like FaceBook as an investment...
We have received many emails asking us what we have against the company. All social issues aside, we will talk about it as an investment. These views are our personal views and are no way a recommendation. Do your own homework.
1. Kids are fickle, volatile, and cost conscious- Our speculation is that the vast majority of its users are young adults and kids. They spend countless hours updating their "virtual images" and trying to increase their "popularity". It is the "cool thing" to do right now and it's free!
2. It is trading at more than 25 times trailing revenue and it is not fully determined exactly what are their earnings.
3. The risk of being able to monetize their users is huge. We don't think the majority of their users will adapt too willingly to fees or ads. A new "outlet" will attract the kids and FaceBook may not be so cool anymore.
4. The basic premise does not hold water. Eventually the "ideal images" and "perfect lives" portrayed by users will be seen as a pathetic excuse for attention. Susceptible to fad swing.
5. Lock-ups will expire, shares will increase. Potential sellers abound.
What would we pay for shares? 10 dollars.
WHAT WOULD CHANGE OUR MINDS?
1. They do claim 900 million users......that could be monetized.
2. A strategic shift into actually trying to "improve" society.
3. New technology
4. Strategic alliances
1. Kids are fickle, volatile, and cost conscious- Our speculation is that the vast majority of its users are young adults and kids. They spend countless hours updating their "virtual images" and trying to increase their "popularity". It is the "cool thing" to do right now and it's free!
2. It is trading at more than 25 times trailing revenue and it is not fully determined exactly what are their earnings.
3. The risk of being able to monetize their users is huge. We don't think the majority of their users will adapt too willingly to fees or ads. A new "outlet" will attract the kids and FaceBook may not be so cool anymore.
4. The basic premise does not hold water. Eventually the "ideal images" and "perfect lives" portrayed by users will be seen as a pathetic excuse for attention. Susceptible to fad swing.
5. Lock-ups will expire, shares will increase. Potential sellers abound.
What would we pay for shares? 10 dollars.
WHAT WOULD CHANGE OUR MINDS?
1. They do claim 900 million users......that could be monetized.
2. A strategic shift into actually trying to "improve" society.
3. New technology
4. Strategic alliances
FaceBook.....Who made money
The unprecedented marketing and spin put on the shares of FaceBook's IPO have made for a great payday for many participants. Who made the money?
1. Insiders - those that bought early and had a main role in the marketing of the shares. They sold a lot!
2. FaceBook employees
2. NASDAQ - huge trading volume and publicity
3. Underwriters - huge revenues and commissions
4. Retail Stock Brokers - How could any of their clients refuse to be so "lucky" to receive so many shares of a hot IPO? They couldn't get in on any of the hundreds of other deals that went up 50% or more the first day of trading; but, they were fortunate enough to get all they want of this issue.
5. CNBC and other media outlets - they pushed the story for weeks and increased their viewers and advertisement dollars from Wall Street institutions.
6. Large institutions who were informed ahead of time of the large retail demand
7. Countless others that had their hand in this huge "show".
Who may not make money?
I think you know the answer. You will hear all kinds of back-peddling, excuses, spin, etc.....They will now try to appear balanced in their opinions (they already made their money).
1. Insiders - those that bought early and had a main role in the marketing of the shares. They sold a lot!
2. FaceBook employees
2. NASDAQ - huge trading volume and publicity
3. Underwriters - huge revenues and commissions
4. Retail Stock Brokers - How could any of their clients refuse to be so "lucky" to receive so many shares of a hot IPO? They couldn't get in on any of the hundreds of other deals that went up 50% or more the first day of trading; but, they were fortunate enough to get all they want of this issue.
5. CNBC and other media outlets - they pushed the story for weeks and increased their viewers and advertisement dollars from Wall Street institutions.
6. Large institutions who were informed ahead of time of the large retail demand
7. Countless others that had their hand in this huge "show".
Who may not make money?
I think you know the answer. You will hear all kinds of back-peddling, excuses, spin, etc.....They will now try to appear balanced in their opinions (they already made their money).
Facebook Fizzle.......not surprised
WSR has been explaining this "hype and dump" scenario for the past few weeks. If you bought at the opening $43 dollars.....it is now $38. We warned you. You never want an IPO that the top 3 retail brokers smile as they make you feel "special" to get such a hot stock. Typical and predictable.
The FaceBook Deal Thoughts.....
1. It has the biggest retail investor interest ever!
2. Wall Street is making about 25% available to the average retail investor
3. Insiders are selling a large amount of shares
4. CNBC hype is in full swing
Predictions: 1.You will get the stock much cheaper
2. The fad will fade
3. Users will begin leaving once they try to monetize the site
2. Wall Street is making about 25% available to the average retail investor
3. Insiders are selling a large amount of shares
4. CNBC hype is in full swing
Predictions: 1.You will get the stock much cheaper
2. The fad will fade
3. Users will begin leaving once they try to monetize the site
Facebook Trade.....Completed
As we discussed a couple months ago, the market would trade up into the FaceBook IPO. The entire Wall Street spin machine has been gearing up for this event. Our plan was to sell before the IPO and go short. The plan worked perfect. We have covered our shorts today. You know our feelings on FaceBook. Stay tuned. Check emails for updates.
Sunday, February 19, 2012
New Service.....Education
We have decided to add education as part of a free service to our website. Our "TCM Investment and Trading Education" segment will occasionally provide instruction on many subjects that interest our readers. Enjoy.
Friday, February 17, 2012
Very Interesting......TVIX
VIX doiwn 7.5% and TVIX down 3%. Why is this interesting? because TVIX is supposed to be 3X's leverage of the VIX- it should be down about 21%! The volume is been enormous- about 600% to 700%. What is going on here? Our hunch is that there has been huge accumulation; but for what? Why? It is a little too early to tell and our entry point is back around 13.50 to 14 for now; however, this needs to be watched closely. The S&P500 technically can go 1400. This is not too far away. Watch out for a violent pull-back at or close to this level. Stay tuned and check emails for strastegy.
Saturday, February 11, 2012
Rules Broken and Lessons Learned...The Ultimate Trader's Trap
We broke a lot of rules on the TVIX trade. Rule number 1: Don't ever "paint" yourself into the ultimate trader's mistake - "The Intellectual Trap". We will get back to the mistakes that led us into this death trap.
An "Intellectual Trap" defined: Trader's by definition fall into the group of highly competetive individuals who consider themselves (right or wrong) extremely intelligent. An "Intellectual Trap" develops when the trader thinks him/her-self far superior than the market. They just "know" that they are right and everyone else is wrong. They can't believe how dumb the market is! They get angry when their trade is losing. Wrong way Charlie! An excellent trader knows that it is not how smart they are; it is the ability to read when the crowd will see what they see. They may be spot on; however, being early can kill your capital. This is why trading the markets has caused many very smart traders everything. It drove them mad. The "Trap" comes when you are so convinced that you are right and your theory is so brilliant that you are subconciously willing to go down with the ship (and so does your capital)!
The Rules:
1. Never go down with the ship! Who cares if you were wrong. The goal is not to be the smartest person in the room; the goal is to make the most money. Socrates said: All that I know, is that I know nothing. A smart man. Surrender the ego.
2. Always use stop losses. These protecd you from yourself.
3. Just when you think you have it all figured out is when you are the most vulnerable.
4. Never, Ever....paint yourslef into a corner.
More to follow..........
An "Intellectual Trap" defined: Trader's by definition fall into the group of highly competetive individuals who consider themselves (right or wrong) extremely intelligent. An "Intellectual Trap" develops when the trader thinks him/her-self far superior than the market. They just "know" that they are right and everyone else is wrong. They can't believe how dumb the market is! They get angry when their trade is losing. Wrong way Charlie! An excellent trader knows that it is not how smart they are; it is the ability to read when the crowd will see what they see. They may be spot on; however, being early can kill your capital. This is why trading the markets has caused many very smart traders everything. It drove them mad. The "Trap" comes when you are so convinced that you are right and your theory is so brilliant that you are subconciously willing to go down with the ship (and so does your capital)!
The Rules:
1. Never go down with the ship! Who cares if you were wrong. The goal is not to be the smartest person in the room; the goal is to make the most money. Socrates said: All that I know, is that I know nothing. A smart man. Surrender the ego.
2. Always use stop losses. These protecd you from yourself.
3. Just when you think you have it all figured out is when you are the most vulnerable.
4. Never, Ever....paint yourslef into a corner.
More to follow..........
TVIX trade update....The Great Escape!
Wow....although we haven't had time to post, our clients know the incredible drama we went through....here is the update:
TVIX and volatility in general continued to defy all logic. We talked about "The Fix is In" and "The Facebook IPO" in regards to "painting the tape". TVIX continued to trade down and the market continued in a straight up trajectory. Our losses continued to mount. It was very difficult to hold. Well....TVIX broke 14 and we had to decide to bail with a huge loss or double up on the entire bet. It just didn't make sense. We thought long and hard and decided to double-up the bet again at 14. So, now we are sitting "All in" with the entire financial media against us. The market is going to the moon. Volatility is an exstinct animal an we are loaded to the gills with Volatility!
Scary stuff to say the least. The technicals confirmed a potential bottom and one of our readers- "Schmitty" sent us texts saying it looks like TVIX had bottomed. We thought he was on to something. We made the bet.
The next 3 days TVIX went from 13.86 to 21! We bailed at 20 and took a small profit. We escaped!
TVIX and volatility in general continued to defy all logic. We talked about "The Fix is In" and "The Facebook IPO" in regards to "painting the tape". TVIX continued to trade down and the market continued in a straight up trajectory. Our losses continued to mount. It was very difficult to hold. Well....TVIX broke 14 and we had to decide to bail with a huge loss or double up on the entire bet. It just didn't make sense. We thought long and hard and decided to double-up the bet again at 14. So, now we are sitting "All in" with the entire financial media against us. The market is going to the moon. Volatility is an exstinct animal an we are loaded to the gills with Volatility!
Scary stuff to say the least. The technicals confirmed a potential bottom and one of our readers- "Schmitty" sent us texts saying it looks like TVIX had bottomed. We thought he was on to something. We made the bet.
The next 3 days TVIX went from 13.86 to 21! We bailed at 20 and took a small profit. We escaped!
Tuesday, January 31, 2012
Update TVIX
Well, we got filled on our $17 stop order a couple days ago. So now we are doubled up. I have to tell you that we are a little nervous here. Where are the traders? Where are the HFT programs? The Street knows QE3 is already in effect. So, when is the time to initiate operation "Volatility"? I say The traders start now. What are you waiting for? The mutual funds are fully invested, the sheep are in. The retail guys are sitting out and they are not playing. So, who is the first to act in this den of thieves? Act now or lose......and THAT is the word on the street.
Thursday, January 19, 2012
Perfect!
It proves our theory that "The set up" is in. Google down 64 dollars after hours! We are very happy. Earnings are poor, the financial system is weak, and volatility should begin to move up.
Very happy we doubled up on our volatility trade going into these earnings. It was a tough bet; however, you gotta be able to make those bets.
Very happy we doubled up on our volatility trade going into these earnings. It was a tough bet; however, you gotta be able to make those bets.
The Confusion and Volatility Trade
Confused by the market? To paraphrase Jesse Livemore -" I'm not a bull or a bear, I just bet on the the right side of the market". That seems to be the mantra so far this year. Quite frankly, nobody really knows why the market continues to go up. The financial system is still extremely weak and the printing boat loads of money continues. Earnings have been disappointing as a whole so far. The financials continue to perform "funny money accounting" The volatility index just broke 20 today! There is just no fear in the market at all so far. The volume is low and most institutions have been stepping over themselves to get invested for the 2012 performance race.This is driving up the market on very low volume. What do they care? It's not their money and they do not want to miss the boat or their bonuses by being left behind. I don't buy it and still think the volatility wave is comming.
We added another bit to our TVIX trade at 21.77 today giving us a 22.88 average price. Check emails for strategy update.
Google, IBM, Intel,and Microsoft report after the bell. The easy bet says they will all be up after they report and Google should kill it. This will be our first test of the "set up". It is a no brainer to bet Google shares rocket after posting earnings. Let see if that transpires or we are still in a thin manipulated market. (our hunch is a sell-off...only the bravest would bet it)
We added another bit to our TVIX trade at 21.77 today giving us a 22.88 average price. Check emails for strategy update.
Google, IBM, Intel,and Microsoft report after the bell. The easy bet says they will all be up after they report and Google should kill it. This will be our first test of the "set up". It is a no brainer to bet Google shares rocket after posting earnings. Let see if that transpires or we are still in a thin manipulated market. (our hunch is a sell-off...only the bravest would bet it)
Thursday, January 12, 2012
Intial Position Placed.....TVIX
We initiated our volatility trade today. We took a 1/4 position in TVIX which is a Leveraged ETF that gives us 3X exposure to the VIX. We bought at 24.15.
We strongly believe a massive hit to market volatility is building.
We strongly believe a massive hit to market volatility is building.
Tuesday, January 10, 2012
Now is The Time! The Volatility Wave is Near....
The VIX has hit our target of 20 (actually it only touched 20.05 today) and we are now ready to begin "Operation VIX Wave". There is an abundance of optimism. The troubles of last summer seem to have dissipated. New year money is flooding into the markets. The money managers are positioning themselves for this year's expected returns. What's the problem?
The waters are too calm. The soveriegn debt issues have not dissappeared and the system in Europe continues to be fragil. As the volatility continues to wane, any small ripple can turn into a tsunami. We will begin our accumulation of volatility trades tomorrow with small intial postions.
The time is now.
Check emails for the strategy outlay.
The waters are too calm. The soveriegn debt issues have not dissappeared and the system in Europe continues to be fragil. As the volatility continues to wane, any small ripple can turn into a tsunami. We will begin our accumulation of volatility trades tomorrow with small intial postions.
The time is now.
Check emails for the strategy outlay.
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